Agency Report –
Munich – The German skilled trades sector is facing its bleakest outlook in 15 years, with the business situation index for 2025 compiled by credit agency Creditreform falling to 45.8 points – marking the third consecutive year of decline.
The index was at 48.3 points in 2024, and in the pre-coronavirus year of 2019 it was as high as 76.6 points, the agency said in a report released on Thursday.
The main driver of this poor performance is the negative trend in the construction sector. Assessments in the automotive sector also deteriorated, albeit from a relatively high level.
In contrast, the mood improved in other sectors such as the metal trade or food and personal services.
The deterioration was also noticeable in companies’ turnover, with the proportion of businesses reporting a decline in turnover narrowly outweighing those reporting growth.
However, the head of economic research at Creditreform said there are initial signs of stabilization.
Patrik-Ludwig Hantzsch noted that “companies’ sales forecasts are no longer as pessimistic as they were last year. Nevertheless, skilled trades are not expecting a noticeable recovery in the near future.”
A total of 24.3% of companies are expecting an improvement, compared to 22.8% who anticipate a decline.
Creditreform also sees an increase in the willingness to invest as another positive signal. The proportion of companies willing to invest climbed to 49.2% from 41.5% a year ago, the highest level for years.
According to Hantzsch, this also has an impact beyond the skilled crafts sector. “Although a rapid economic recovery is unlikely, the skilled crafts sector, together with domestic demand, could help to stabilize the economy,” he said.
