WASHINGTON — In a world of diplomatic ambiguity and strategic deception, President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu achieved strategic surprise against Iran by doing the unthinkable: they simply meant what they said.
“Blow them up nicely or blow them up viciously,” Trump reportedly told Iran in May 2024, referring to its nuclear weapons infrastructure. Tehran didn’t believe him. The missiles came in June.
A detailed analysis by Michael Doran in The Free Press reveals how Israel’s Operation Rising Lion struck at the heart of Iran’s military leadership and nuclear ambitions — just days after the expiration of Trump’s 60-day ultimatum to Tehran.
Iran Misread the Signals
Trump’s deadline began around April 12, warning Tehran to come to the table by mid-June. It expired quietly on June 11. Two days later, Israel launched a decisive strike.
Iranian leaders miscalculated. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei assumed that Netanyahu wouldn’t act without the direct involvement of U.S. Central Command. According to regional defense experts, Tehran believed its ballistic missile threat would deter Israeli action by dragging the U.S. into a broader war — something Trump deeply opposed.
“The Iranians thought they could split the U.S. and Israel by betting on Trump’s aversion to Middle East entanglements,” said one Western intelligence official, speaking anonymously.
They were wrong. Netanyahu understood Trump better than the Iranians did. Where Tehran saw a gap between Washington and Jerusalem, Netanyahu saw opportunity.
No Lie, No Bluff — Just Silence
Rather than conceal intentions behind traditional disinformation, Israel leaned into strategic transparency. There was no sleight of hand. Trump said he wouldn’t allow Iran to get the bomb. Netanyahu believed him — and acted accordingly.
“The heart of the deception was not a lie… it was the absence of deception entirely,” Doran writes.
This novel strategy — of allowing enemy assumptions to do the misdirecting — rendered Iran’s cognitive defenses obsolete. Operation Rising Lion bypassed Iran’s physical infrastructure by dismantling its strategic confidence.
A Doctrine of Deterrence Without Entanglement
The operation also showcased Trump’s unique Middle East doctrine: using American power without permanent military entrenchment.
“Trump was willing to back shows of force with real capability,” Doran wrote elsewhere. “But he never wanted to own the battlefield.”
Israel, meanwhile, maintained escalation dominance — a position reinforced by American support systems in the Gulf, even if indirectly.
Fallout and Forward Strategy
While Tehran remains publicly defiant, the strike appears to have upended its military planning. Analysts warn, however, that Iran may pivot to a drawn-out shadow war — combining asymmetric attacks, regional proxies, and cyber operations.
As the dust settles, one truth emerges: Trump and Netanyahu did not outmaneuver Iran with new weapons or secret channels. They simply spoke clearly — and followed through.
“Those who believed otherwise misunderstood not the tactics, but the men,” Doran concludes.
Editor: Gabriel Ani