DJIBO, Burkina Faso — The al-Qaida-linked group Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) launched a major assault on the provincial capital of Djibo in northern Burkina Faso on May 11, seizing the town’s military base and inflicting heavy casualties on Burkinabe forces, officials and analysts said.
The attack, which lasted several hours, marked one of the deadliest in the Sahel region this year and highlighted the continued security failures of the Burkinabe junta led by Ibrahim Traoré. Local sources estimated over 100 casualties, while JNIM claimed on May 15 that 200 Burkinabe soldiers were killed.
“The attack exposed serious gaps in the military’s ability to defend key population centers and demonstrated JNIM’s growing operational capacity,” said security analyst Liam Karr. “The group forced government air support to retreat using captured antiaircraft weapons, showing their increased firepower.”
JNIM also targeted civilians suspected of links to pro-government militias during the raid, a tactic that analysts say is part of a broader strategy to intimidate and weaken the Burkinabe government’s influence in the region.
Meanwhile, in northeastern Nigeria, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has intensified its campaign against Nigerian forces, overrunning security positions a dozen times since March. The group’s spring offensive signals a resurgence that experts warn could destabilize the Lake Chad Basin further.
“ISWAP’s attacks have adapted to Nigerian military strategies, with nighttime raids on fortified ‘super camps’ and disruption of supply routes,” Karr noted. “This offensive could strengthen IS’s global network, especially in West Africa.”
IS Sahel Province (ISSP), operating along the Niger-Nigeria border, has also increased attacks in 2025, according to intelligence reports. This escalation coincides with heightened counterinsurgency efforts by Nigerien and Nigerian forces, prompting Salafi-jihadi groups to operationalize their support networks more aggressively.
The Burkinabe junta has faced increasing criticism for its harsh counterinsurgency tactics, which have led to widespread civilian casualties. Human Rights Watch documented a massacre of over 100 Fulani civilians by army forces in western Burkina Faso in May, accusing the government of systematic abuses.
“Instead of improving security, Traoré’s regime has escalated violence against civilians, fueling cycles of retaliation and insurgent recruitment,” said Karr.
As JNIM and IS affiliates press their offensives, regional efforts to contain the insurgency face setbacks. Niger’s recent withdrawal from the Multinational Joint Task Force and tensions among Lake Chad Basin countries threaten to undermine coordinated counterterrorism operations.
In Libya, meanwhile, clashes continue in Tripoli as forces loyal to Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah confront rival militias for control, adding to instability in North Africa.
The evolving security landscape across the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin underscores the urgent need for stronger regional cooperation and effective strategies to counter the growing threat posed by jihadist groups.
