Berlin – Maryam has a clear idea of which party she does not want to see leading Germany for the next four years.
Voting for the far-right and anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) on February 23 “is out of the question for me,” the 28-year-old Berlin resident says, particularly because “as a foreigner, they see me as something of an enemy.”
Like many other Syrians, Maryam – who did not wish to use her real name – came to Germany in 2015 after civil war broke out in her native country.
Having received her German passport in 2023, she is eligible to cast a ballot for the first time.
Germany is home to some 1.3 million people who either emigrated from Syria themselves or whose parents did, according to official figures. By the end of 2023, some 214,000 including minors had German citizenship – a growing voting bloc.
While Maryam, a doctor, has eliminated a vote for the AfD, deciding which party to support has been less straightforward.
“I’m still thinking about it,” she tells dpa. “It will probably come down to the Greens.” In her view, the party’s migration policies are the most “humane,” and she shares the Greens’ concern for the environment.
Migration takes centre stage
Some 7.1 million citizens in Germany with a migrant background are eligible to vote, according to research platform Mediendienst Integration, amounting to 12% of the population.
Many in this group are watching closely to see what parties have to offer as a national debate around migration reaches boiling point.
On Wednesday, there was uproar in parliament as a non-binding motion tabled by the conservative opposition to toughen border controls was passed in the lower house – but only thanks to votes from the AfD. This unprecedented outcome broke a long-standing taboo in German politics.
One major spark for the renewed focus on migration was the fall of Syria’s long-time ruler Bashar al-Assad in December. The dramatic events prompted immediate suggestions from right-wing politicians in Germany that Syrian refugees should now return home.
The debate has polarized further following an attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg, and a deadly stabbing last week for which a failed Afghan asylum seeker has been detained. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), the frontrunner to become the next chancellor, started an urgent push for a crackdown on migration – leading to Wednesday’s vote.
Tarek, Maryam’s brother based in the eastern city of Dresden, rules out voting for both the CDU and the AfD.
Speaking before Wednesday’s vote, he criticized the CDU for taking a “populist change of course” to woo AfD voters. This had normalized far-right rhetoric including antagonistic language towards migrants, argues Tarek, who came to Germany in 2015 before his sister.
Divided vote
According to a new study, 20.1% of voters with migrant backgrounds – defined as those who migrated to Germany or who have at least one parent born without German citizenship – would consider voting for the AfD, compared to 76% for the governing centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).
But it’s far from a binary choice, especially in Germany’s increasingly fractured political landscape.
The study by the German Centre for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM) shows, for example, that willingness to support the upstart Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – which also explicitly calls for a curb on migration, but abstained in Wednesday’s vote – was much higher among those with a family history of migration from Turkey or the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, at 55.5%.
Here, the Gaza war is a key factor.
Mohamed, a 30-year-old computer scientist based just outside Berlin, is considering voting for BSW because the party has sharply condemned the war and called for a weapons embargo on Israel.
“The SPD is completely biased in favour of Israel,” says Mohamed, who is also among the many who came from Syria in 2015.
Yunus Ulusoy, an integration expert from the University of Duisburg-Essen, points out that people with a Muslim background from the MENA region are “affected differently” by the Gaza war. They do not strongly relate to the overarching sense of responsibility for Israel rooted in the Holocaust, which dominates public debate in Germany.
Meanwhile, the AfD appeals to some Germans with a migrant background precisely because of their hardline stance on migration.
Long-established migrant groups like Germany’s Turkish community differ from newer arrivals who are considered “competitors in some respects,” Ulusoy notes.
This can lead some to feel that what they’ve built “over four, five, six decades is being called into question by the new arrivals.”
Cautiously optimistic
For Abdul, 31, who left Syria almost 10 years ago, the top criteria for which party to support are democracy and humanity, principles that he does not see reflected in the AfD.
He’s frustrated at not being eligible to vote this time around as he waits for his German passport.
However, he is not particularly concerned that the outcome of next month’s vote will have a direct impact on his life, even in the unlikely event that the AfD makes it into government.
“They can’t send back everyone who came as a refugee,” he says. “Germany will remain a democratic country, that won’t change quickly.”
Maryam agrees: “Germans would take to the streets if things got really bad,” she says.
“I’m optimistic,” she concludes. “People are smart enough to realize what’s going on.”
By Elena Radwan
