STOCKHOLM (CHATNEWSTV) — The world is edging into a new and more dangerous nuclear arms race as key disarmament agreements unravel and military modernization accelerates, according to the SIPRI Yearbook 2025, released Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Nine nuclear-armed nations continued to upgrade their arsenals in 2024, with signs that reductions seen since the Cold War are ending. The United States, Russia, and China lead the trend, while smaller nuclear powers such as India, Pakistan, and North Korea are expanding capabilities, SIPRI said.
“The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end,” said Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow at SIPRI. “Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements.”
As of January 2025, the global stockpile stood at an estimated 12,241 nuclear warheads, with 9,614 in military stockpiles and nearly 2,100 kept on high operational alert. Most of these belong to Russia and the U.S., though China may now be keeping some warheads on missiles in peacetime.
U.S., Russia Maintain 90% of Global Arsenal
Washington and Moscow together still hold nearly 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons. Although both countries’ deployed warhead numbers remained relatively stable in 2024, modernization efforts continue apace. SIPRI warns that without a successor to the New START treaty, which expires in February 2026, deployed warhead counts could rise again.
The U.S. modernization plan—already facing budgetary hurdles—includes adding new non-strategic warheads, which analysts say could strain the program further. Russia, meanwhile, saw setbacks in 2024, including a failed test of the Sarmat ICBM and slow progress on other strategic systems.
China Accelerates, India–Pakistan Tensions Flare
China’s arsenal has reached an estimated 600 warheads, with construction of over 350 new missile silos suggesting Beijing may eventually rival U.S. and Russian capabilities.
“Depending on how it structures its force, China could potentially match the ICBM numbers of the U.S. or Russia by the 2030s,” SIPRI noted.
India and Pakistan, both continuing to develop new delivery systems, came close to nuclear crisis in early 2025. Armed conflict briefly erupted following strikes on nuclear-related military infrastructure.
“The combination of strikes and disinformation risked turning a conventional conflict into a nuclear crisis,” said SIPRI researcher Matt Korda. “This should act as a stark warning for states seeking to increase their reliance on nuclear weapons.”
North Korea now holds an estimated 50 assembled warheads, with production accelerating. South Korea has warned that Pyongyang is nearing deployment of a tactical nuclear weapon.
Israel—though it has never officially confirmed its arsenal—also continued modernization in 2024, testing missile propulsion systems and upgrading its Dimona reactor complex.
Arms Control in Tatters
SIPRI Director Dan Smith warned that bilateral arms control between the U.S. and Russia “is now almost over.” With no new treaty in sight, both countries are shifting focus to rivalries involving China and emerging technologies.
“The signs are that a new arms race is gearing up that carries much more risk and uncertainty than the last one,” Smith said.
Artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cyber capabilities, and space-based systems are reshaping nuclear strategy and increasing the risk of accidental or miscalculated launches.
“With faster decision-making in crises, there’s a higher risk of nuclear conflict triggered by miscommunication or technical failure,” Smith added.
More Nations Eyeing Nuclear Options
SIPRI also highlights a growing interest in nuclear weapons among states that have previously remained non-nuclear. In 2024, Belarus and Russia confirmed forward deployment of Russian weapons in Belarus. Several NATO states also indicated readiness to host U.S. nuclear weapons.
French President Emmanuel Macron again suggested that France’s nuclear arsenal should play a broader role in European security.
“Nuclear weapons do not guarantee peace,” Korda said. “As shown in the India–Pakistan clash, they can raise the stakes of conflict and increase the risk of catastrophe.”
Geopolitical Tensions Escalate
The report comes amid ongoing wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and other conflict zones, alongside growing global mistrust. The election of Donald Trump has added uncertainty to the future of U.S. foreign policy and NATO reliability.
Now in its 56th edition, the SIPRI Yearbook remains a vital source for analysis on nuclear policy, military spending, arms production, international conflict, and emerging technologies.
