April 11, 2025 | Stockholm (CHATNEWSTV) — As Russia braces for a fourth year of war in Ukraine, its federal budget for 2025 signals a deeper entrenchment in military expenditure, despite signs of economic overheating and persistent Western sanctions.
The country’s total planned military spending for 2025 is estimated at 15.5 trillion rubles (€155 billion), marking a 3.4% increase in real terms over the 2024 allocation, according to a new report released on Friday from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The amount is equivalent to 7.2% of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP).
“This is a level of spending that should be manageable for Russia,” said Professor Julian Cooper, author of the SIPRI report and an expert on Russia’s military economy. “But if current economic trends continue, budgetary pressures could mount significantly.”
Cooper warns that official figures may understate the full scale of war-related spending. “A growing share of military expenditure now lies outside the official ‘National defence’ chapter,” he noted. These include budget lines for social support to military families and rebuilding efforts in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.
The opacity of Russia’s budget has increased, making it harder to discern the full military burden. Cooper wrote that the ‘National defence’ category is “an ever more unreliable proxy for total military spending.”
Apart from military hardware and personnel, the 2025–27 budget includes funds for regions affected by the conflict — both within Russia’s borders and in occupied parts of Ukraine.
Despite sanctions and international isolation, Russia’s economy showed unexpected growth in 2024, helping maintain a near-balanced budget. However, the Central Bank has signaled concerns about overheating, which could hamper businesses and complicate budget planning going forward.
“The economy has been growing at a rapid pace, but the Central Bank’s attempts to cool it are creating difficulties for many sectors,” Cooper wrote.
“The challenge for Russian officials is to balance war demands with a sense of normalcy for its citizens.”
While the Kremlin appears committed to long-term engagement in Ukraine, the sustainability of such high military expenditure remains in question. According to Cooper, “If the war drags on and economic cooling measures deepen, maintaining current levels of spending could become increasingly difficult.”
The SIPRI report offers a sobering reminder: Russia’s wartime economy is not just about guns and tanks — it is a strategic balancing act between conflict and continuity at home.
